Natural History Wanderings

The Draconids meteor shower is created by  particles that are stripped off short-period (6.6 year orbit) comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. The year before the comet passes by the meteor shower is greatly increased.  How much is not  easy to predict. Articles estiimate anywhere from 200 to 1000 meteors per hour. The peak is predicted to occur between 17:00 and 18:00 Universal Time on October 8, 2001. If correct this means Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East will get to watch the Draconids at the peak. Possible problems for meteor watchers are a bright moon and cloudy weather.

EarthSky.org reports:

“The Draconid shower is predicted to produce the greatest number of meteors on the night of October 8, 2011. Watch for them starting at nightfall. Unfortunately, the waxing gibbous moon will wipe many of these meteors from view, and oftentimes the hard-to-predict shower doesn’t offer much more than a handful of languid meteors per hour.

However, this shower produced major displays in 1933 and 1946 – with thousands of meteors per hour seen in those years – but since then has been so spotty that the tried-and-true Observer’s Handbook – source of so much wonderful sky info – lists a “?” for the rate of meteors expected at the peak of the Draconids. This year, however, some astronomers are calling for a Draconid meteor shower to burst into storm in 2011, with rates of 1,000 meteors per hour.

The forecast calls for the peak to occur between 17:00 and 18:00 Universal Time on October 8, 2001. If the prediction holds true, that means Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East will get to watch the Draconids at their peak. But keep in mind that meteor showers are notorious for defying predictions, either surpassing or falling shy of expectation, so you never know for sure. Even if the storm materializes, the bright moon will undoubtedly wash away many of these meteors.”

Read more at National Geographic Meteor Shower This Weekend: Space Station at Risk? who report:

“The usually humdrum Draconid meteor shower is set to go into overdrive this weekend: Astronomers predict that Saturday’s sky show may be a not just a shower but a storm.

If the forecasts are correct, the Draconids could see peak rates of up to 600 meteors an hour—an outburst that would far outpace even the crowd-pleasing August Perseids. (See Perseid pictures: “Meteor Shower Dazzles Every August.”)

The possibility of a meteor storm has NASA and other spacecraft operators keeping keen eyes on how the Draconids might affect the International Space Station (ISS) and other satellites currently in Earth’s orbit.”